Guidance from official data

computed 26 Sept 2026, 04:30 MYT · every card targets one group of Malaysians · how we work

Independent analysis of official Malaysian open data (data.gov.my, DOSM). Computed statistics are real; card text is model-inferred from those numbers. Not financial or investment advice.

Top actions model-inferred

Drivers:
window 2026-04 → 2026-09 · range 3.37–4.57 RM/litre
Petrol RON95 · RM/litre · latest 4.57 (2026-09) ↗ rising

Petrol has jumped about a third in a year and keeps climbing every week

Computed statistics

RON95 reached about RM4.57 a litre in late September 2026, roughly a third more than a year earlier, and diesel rose by a similar margin. Pump prices have stepped up week after week since mid-August, well outside their normal range.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Budget fuel at current levels, plan long trips around the weekly price announcement, and compare routes or carpool where possible.

evidence · computed

fuel_ron95 2026-09-24: RM4.57, +RM1.20 yoy, six consecutive weekly anomalies z 3.0-5.1. fuel_diesel RM5.42, +RM1.45 yoy.

Families:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 1.1–2 % a year
Consumer prices (headline) · % a year · latest 1.9 (2026-08) → stable

top of Bank Negara's 2-4% comfort band: 4% a year — now below. sustained months above this: revisit household budget lines and lock in big purchases sooner

Overall prices rose under 2 per cent, the fuel surge has not spread to the whole basket

Computed statistics

Headline inflation was 1.9 per cent in August 2026, only a touch above a year ago, even though pump prices are up by about a third. The statistical link between fuel and the overall basket this year has been close to zero.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Keep a month of grocery receipts to measure your own inflation. The shopping trolley, not the pump, is still the better guide to your cost of living.

evidence · computed

cpi_headline_yoy 2026-08: 1.9%, +0.6pp yoy. Correlation fuel_ron95~cpi_headline_yoy r=0.023 (n=20).

Factory workers:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 118288326527–193550477483 RM
Exports · RM · latest 191.0b (2026-08) ↗ rising

Exports are on a record run, about 45 per cent above last year

Computed statistics

Exports in August 2026 ran about 45 per cent higher than a year earlier, and the monthly trade surplus has stayed at record territory every month since March. Factories are producing about 5 per cent more than a year ago.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Export-factory workers may see more overtime and shift openings. SME suppliers can ask buyers for longer contract commitments while orders are strong.

evidence · computed

trade_exports 2026-08: RM191.0b, +RM59.7b yoy (+45%). trade_balance RM28.1b, +77% yoy, anomalies every month Mar-Aug 2026. ipi_index +4.7% yoy.

Parents:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 1.1–2.7 index
CPI Division 01 · index · latest 1.9 (2026-08) → stable

The grocery bill is calm again, food inflation back under 2 per cent

Computed statistics

Food prices in August 2026 were about 1.9 per cent higher than a year earlier, with only a slight upward nudge in the most recent months.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Compare unit prices rather than packet prices, and build a small stock of shelf-stable staples gradually in case regional supply news turns bad again.

evidence · computed

cpi_div_01 2026-08: +1.9% yoy, slope_3m +0.25. Historical contrast: 2008-09 anomalies 9.2-12.3%.

Renters and bill payers:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 0.7–3.2 index
CPI Division 04 · index · latest 2.1 (2026-08) ↗ rising

Rents and utilities are creeping up faster than most other bills

Computed statistics

Housing, water and electricity costs rose about 2.1 per cent in the year to August 2026, roughly a full point faster than the pace a year before, the clearest steady acceleration among the major spending groups.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Renewers can negotiate a longer lock-in at the current rate. House-sharers should recheck how bills are split, since utilities are rising too.

evidence · computed

cpi_div_04 2026-08: +2.1% yoy, change_12m +0.9pp, slope_3m +0.35, steepest acceleration among divisions.

Commuters:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range -0.7–4.1 index
CPI Division 07 · index · latest 2 (2026-08) → stable

Bus and ride fares have not followed the pump, yet

Computed statistics

Transport prices in the consumer basket rose about 2 per cent over the past year, versus almost no change a year earlier, while diesel climbed by about a third.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Regular commuters can lock in monthly passes or shift to off-peak travel now, before any fare catch-up lands.

evidence · model-inferred

cpi_div_07 2026-08: +2.0% yoy, was +0.2% a year earlier. fuel_diesel +36% yoy over the same window.

Diners:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 2–3.5 index
CPI Division 11 · index · latest 2.1 (2026-08) ↘ falling

Eating out is pricier, but the increases have cooled a lot

Computed statistics

Restaurant and hotel prices rose about 2.1 per cent in the year to August 2026, down from a pace above 7 per cent in late 2022.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Loyalty apps and set lunches hold their value far better than during the reopening years. Worth using while menu inflation stays low.

evidence · computed

cpi_div_11 2026-08: +2.1% yoy, -1.4pp yoy. Late-2022 to early-2023 anomalies 6.9-7.4%. Pandemic trough -9.9 to -11.1% in 2020.

Households:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 0.3–2.3 index
CPI Inflation: Sarawak · index · latest 0.5 (2026-08) → stable

Your postcode sets your inflation, from half a per cent to 2.5

Computed statistics

In the year to August 2026 prices rose about 0.5 per cent in Sarawak but about 2.5 per cent in Negeri Sembilan, the widest gap among the states.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Households planning a move or retirement can weigh the living-cost gap between states, since a two-point difference compounds year after year.

evidence · computed

cpi_state_sarawak 2026-08: +0.5% yoy (lowest). cpi_state_negeri_sembilan +2.5% (highest). National headline +1.9%.

Lower-income families:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 133.8–137.3 index
Cost of living (B40) · index · latest 137.3 (2026-08) → stable

The lowest-spending households face slightly gentler price rises

Computed statistics

The basket tracked for lower-spending households cost about 1.7 per cent more in August 2026 than a year before, a touch under the national 1.9 per cent.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Tight-budget households can use subsidised-goods channels and bulk buying with neighbours to stretch the ringgit while essentials stay capped.

evidence · computed

cpi_lowincome_idx 2026-08: 137.3, +1.7% yoy in index terms, vs headline +1.9%. No anomalies in 200 observations.

Phone and internet users:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range -6.4–3.4 index
CPI Division 08 · index · latest 2.6 (2026-08) → stable

The era of cheaper phone bills is over, for now

Computed statistics

Communication prices are up about 2.6 per cent in the year to August 2026, after falling by more than 5 per cent through mid-2025.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Students and heavy data users on old promotional plans should recheck renewal terms before the promotion lapses.

evidence · model-inferred

cpi_div_08 2026-08: +2.6% yoy. Anomalies: May-Sep 2025 at -4.5% to -6.4%, then +3.4% in Jul 2026.

Savers:
window 2024-09 → 2026-08 · range 1.6–2.3 % a year
Consumer prices (core) · % a year · latest 1.7 (2026-08) ↘ falling

Core inflation slipped below 2 per cent, quiet prices under the surface

Computed statistics

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 1.7 per cent in August 2026, slightly cooler than a year ago and far below its peak above 4 per cent in late 2022.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: With core this quiet, money in interest-bearing savings or fixed deposits holds its purchasing power well. Compare renewal rates before any auto-roll.

evidence · computed

cpi_core_yoy 2026-08: 1.7%, -0.3pp yoy. Anomalies Oct 2022 - Mar 2023 at 3.8-4.2%.

Savers and overseas travellers:
window 2020-07 → 2026-04 · range 855.1090000000077–27963.685000000005 RM million
Current account · RM million · latest 10,766 (2026-04) ↗ rising

Malaysia earns more abroad than it spends, yet large sums are flowing out too

Computed statistics

In the quarter to March 2026 the current account surplus widened to about RM10.8 billion, while roughly RM27 billion left through the investment account in the same quarter.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: With strong export earnings and big outflows side by side, ringgit swings can stay sharp. Stagger foreign-currency purchases for trips or tuition instead of buying in one go.

evidence · model-inferred

bop_ca 2026Q1: RM10.77b, +RM2.6b yoy. bop_fa -RM26.96b. bop_neo +RM33.2b, anomaly z=3.89.

People with asthma:
window 2021-01 → 2022-12 · range 10.02–15.94 µg/m³
Air: PM2.5 · µg/m³ · latest 10.75 (2022-12) → stable

Haze can multiply fine-dust levels fivefold, but official readings stop at 2022

Computed statistics

In September 2019 the monthly fine-dust reading hit roughly five times the level recorded at the end of 2022, the worst spike in the series. That series has not been updated since December 2022.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Do not wait for official updates. Keep N95 masks and purifiers ready every dry season, and treat any smell of burning as the signal to act.

evidence · computed

air_pm_2.5 2019-09: 52.86 (z=6.06) vs 2022-12: 10.75. Series ends 2022-12, stale by about 45 months as of Sep 2026.

Job seekers:
window 2001-01 → 2022-01 · range 51.7–64.4 share %
Jobs: services · share % · latest 63.8 (2022-01) → stable

Two in three jobs are in services, but the count is more than four years old

Computed statistics

The latest count, from early 2022, puts about 64 per cent of workers in services and roughly one in ten in agriculture. No fresher update exists in this dataset.

Model-inferred interpretation

Consider: Weight your skills toward services roles, in digital, care and logistics, while treating the exact shares as dated.

evidence · computed

emp_services 2022-01: 63.8% of employment, annual series (n=22). emp_industry 25.4%, emp_agriculture 10.8%. Series ends 2022-01, stale.

What the data shows computed

Air: carbon monoxide

0.5 ppm · 12-mo -0.06 ppm
computed data period Dec 2022

Air: nitrogen dioxide

0.01 ppm · 12-mo +0 ppm
computed data period Dec 2022

Air: ozone

0.02 ppm · 12-mo +0 ppm
computed data period Dec 2022 unusual reading Feb 2021

Air: PM10

18.44 µg/m³ · 12-mo -0.42 µg/m³
computed data period Dec 2022

Air: PM2.5

10.75 µg/m³ · 12-mo -0.68 µg/m³
computed data period Dec 2022

Air: sulphur dioxide

0 ppm · 12-mo +0 ppm
computed data period Dec 2022

Current account

10,766 RM million · 12-mo +2569.39 RM million
computed unusual reading Jul 2020 unusual reading Oct 2022

Financial account

-26,957 RM million · 12-mo -19,498 RM million
computed unusual reading Jan 2022 unusual reading Jan 2026

Capital account

-4.24 RM million · 12-mo +16.09 RM million
computed

Net errors & omissions

33,179 RM million · 12-mo +46,288 RM million
computed unusual reading Jan 2022 unusual reading Jan 2024 unusual reading Apr 2024

Official reserves

-16,985 RM million · 12-mo -29,375 RM million
computed

Consumer prices (core)

1.7 % a year · 12-mo -0.3 % a year
computed

CPI Division 01

1.9 index · 12-mo -0.1 index
computed

CPI Division 02

2.8 index · 12-mo +2.4 index
computed

CPI Division 03

0.1 index · 12-mo +0.2 index
computed

CPI Division 04

2.1 index · 12-mo +0.9 index
computed

CPI Division 05

0.4 index · 12-mo +0.2 index
computed

CPI Division 06

1.3 index · 12-mo +0.2 index
computed

CPI Division 07

2 index · 12-mo +1.8 index
computed

CPI Division 08

2.6 index · 12-mo +8.2 index
computed unusual reading May 2025 unusual reading Jun 2025 unusual reading Jul 2025

CPI Division 09

1.1 index · 12-mo +0.2 index
computed

CPI Division 10

1.9 index · 12-mo -0.5 index
computed unusual reading Jan 2026

CPI Division 11

2.1 index · 12-mo -1.4 index
computed

CPI Division 12

1 index · 12-mo -4.6 index
computed unusual reading Jan 2026 unusual reading Feb 2026 unusual reading Mar 2026

CPI Division 13

3.2 index · 12-mo -0.8 index
computed unusual reading Oct 2025 unusual reading Nov 2025 unusual reading Dec 2025

Consumer prices (headline)

1.9 % a year · 12-mo +0.6 % a year
computed

Cost of living (B40)

137.3 index · 12-mo +2.3 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Johor

2.3 index · 12-mo +0.3 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Kedah

2.3 index · 12-mo +1.8 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Kelantan

1.1 index · 12-mo +1 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Melaka

2 index · 12-mo +0.7 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Negeri Sembilan

2.5 index · 12-mo +1.1 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Pahang

2.3 index · 12-mo +1.2 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Perak

1.2 index · 12-mo +0.4 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Perlis

1.2 index · 12-mo +0.5 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Pulau Pinang

1.7 index · 12-mo +0.7 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Sabah

1.8 index · 12-mo +0.5 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Sarawak

0.5 index · 12-mo +0 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Selangor

2.1 index · 12-mo +0.6 index
computed

CPI Inflation: Terengganu

1.2 index · 12-mo -0.3 index
computed

CPI Inflation: W.P. Kuala Lumpur

2.1 index · 12-mo +1.1 index
computed

CPI Inflation: W.P. Labuan

2.3 index · 12-mo +1.5 index
computed

CPI Inflation: W.P. Putrajaya

2 index · 12-mo +1.2 index
computed

Jobs: agriculture

10.8 share % · 12-mo -2.8 share %
computed data period Jan 2022

Jobs: industry

25.4 share % · 12-mo -2.9 share %
computed data period Jan 2022 unusual reading Jan 2001

Jobs: services

63.8 share % · 12-mo +5.7 share %
computed data period Jan 2022

Diesel

5.42 RM/litre · 12-mo +1.45 RM/litre
computed unusual reading Aug 2026 unusual reading Aug 2026 unusual reading Sep 2026

Petrol RON95

4.57 RM/litre · 12-mo +1.2 RM/litre
computed unusual reading Aug 2026 unusual reading Aug 2026 unusual reading Sep 2026

Industrial production

144.16 index · 12-mo +6.42 index
computed unusual reading Jun 2026

Trade balance

28.1b RM · 12-mo +12.2b RM
computed unusual reading Mar 2025 unusual reading Mar 2026 unusual reading Apr 2026

Exports

191.0b RM · 12-mo +59.7b RM
computed unusual reading Mar 2026 unusual reading Apr 2026 unusual reading May 2026

Imports

163.0b RM · 12-mo +47.5b RM
computed unusual reading Mar 2026 unusual reading Apr 2026 unusual reading May 2026

see the raw data →